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X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://texascecon.org/
X-WR-CALNAME:CECON 2026
X-WR-CALDESC:Revitalizing Resiliency
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DTSTART:20260308T030000
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DTSTART:20261101T010000
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DTSTART;TZID=America/Chicago:20260916T143000
DTEND;TZID=America/Chicago:20260916T153000
DTSTAMP:20260603T111123Z
CREATED:20260603
LAST-MODIFIED:20260805
PRIORITY:5
SEQUENCE:3
TRANSP:OPAQUE
SUMMARY:Seeing Trouble Early: Sugar Land’s Earned Value-Based Early Warning System for Municipal Project Risk Management
DESCRIPTION:Municipal governments are expected to deliver capital projects predictably, yet they rarely have access to the cost systems, resource‑loaded schedules, or enterprise tools that make traditional Earned Value Management (EVM) effective. While contractors and consultants operate with sophisticated controls, cities are confined by taxpayer constraints and limited visibility. This creates a structural blind spot: municipal owners need early warning signals, but the data required for standard EVM is not available. To bridge this gap, the City of Sugar Land developed a “lightweight” early warning framework that adapts core earned value concepts using only information municipalities already possess: contract value, invoicing, certified percent complete, and milestone‑based progress. Rather than replicating contractor systems, the approach translates these municipal data proxies into performance indicators. These indicators reveal how projects behave as uncertainty accumulates, supporting a simple risk‑categorization structure that helps staff prioritize intervention. The practical impact of this system is best illustrated by its application to two active infrastructure design projects, the framework surfaced emerging risks months before traditional reporting. In Project A, a counterintuitive Cost Performance Index (CPI) of 1.21 signaled underbilling and financial stress well before a 20.5 percent change order materialized. In Project B, a Schedule Performance Index (SPI) declined to 0.60, quantifying severe delays driven by external regulatory coordination, even as narrative updates remained optimistic. These signals helped staff distinguish between epistemic uncertainty related to incomplete knowledge and aleatory uncertainty driven by external actors and variability. Ultimately, the value for attendees is practical and replicable. This session shows how cities, and even private firms, can use earned value concepts as an early warning tool to ask better questions, communicate risk clearly to leadership, and intervene earlier, all without new software, proprietary cost data, or added taxpayer burden.\n
URL:https://texascecon.org/cecon/revitalizing-water-infrastructure-resiliency-balancing-capital-decision-stability-and-operational-prediction-accuracy-a-case-study-on-the-hydraulic-impact-factor-hif-framework-in-sugar-land-texas/
CATEGORIES:Construction Institute (TxCI),Sessions
LOCATION:C105
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